Friday 30th May 2008

UK Consumer Confidence at Lowest Level since the end of Thatcher

U.K. consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since Margaret Thatcher was ousted from office in 1990, as people became more pessimistic that the economy will slip into a recession, GfK NOP Ltd have announced. A gauge of sentiment declined 5 points from April to minus 29, the lowest since November 1990, the same month as Thatcher quit as prime minister.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher has said he expects the central bank would raise the benchmark U.S. interest rate should the public begin to expect greater gains in consumer prices. Other Fed Bank Presidents, Gary Stern and Thomas Hoenig, have expressed growing concern this month about rising prices. Fisher, is the only member of the Federal Committee to dissent three times from the decisions to lower overnight bank-lending rate, favouring either no change or a less aggressive reduction.

With that the dollar is heading for a second monthly advance against the euro and the yen as rising stocks and “declining” crude oil prices brightened the outlook for the U.S. economy, the worlds biggest oil importer. The Euro fell following retail sales in Germany unexpectedly dropped for a second month in April. This lead to speculation the German economy (Europe’s largest economy) is losing momentum as faster inflation erodes consumers’ spending power.

There seems to be increasing expectation that the Bank of England will add to interest rate cuts this year with growing concerns the UK economy is continuing to weaken. On the currency front this has led to speculation that the U.K. currency will decline to 81 pence per euro in the coming months, the pound traded at 80.98 pence on April 16th, the lowest level since the euro’s inception in 1999.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell this week on signs growth is slowing as prices of commodities the two nations export declined.

Crude oil fell for a second day after declining the most since March as record prices reduced demand for gasoline and Jet Fuel. Oil prices have closed at all-time highs on 27 days this year.

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